Premier Class…

1 04 2010

Whilst sitting here fuming that the plumber which visited this morning to simply tighten a pipe has somehow managed to remove any hot water from anywhere other than the kitchen, I thought I would do what I promised a few days ago and write a blog on the Premier League and my expectations for the last few matches.

Lets start at the top. Chelsea will win it, Man Utd will come second and Arsenal third. I don’t like the idea of Chelsea winning it particularly, but they simply seem to have the legs whereas Man Utd and Arsenal seem reliant upon inspiration from individuals. The injuries to Rooney and Fabregas severely hamper their respective teams and their title challenges. Arsenal have no-one to suitably replace Fabregas, and the nearest pretender, Ramsey, is crocked for the long term too. For United, the loss of Rooney is a big blow, and whilst Berbatov has shown recently that he is good enough to replace Rooney, there are, for me, question marks as to whether he can provide as much inspiration and clinical finishing that Rooney does. Man Utd do not need a player to drift in and out of matches like Berbatov does, instead they need players to grab the game by the scruff of its neck and win them. Berbatov only does this in part.

For me Chelsea are looking like they are getting stronger, and with no European competition to worry them, the league becomes the priority. Add to this the bonus that their key men (of which, unlike their rivals there is more than one) are not getting injured in Europe but instead are getting stronger and better, and the only conclusion is that they will regain the title.

In the race for fourth, I still think Liverpool will just about get there. The two-man team that is currently the Anfield side is showing signs of significant improvement, and looking at their remaining fixtures, it is, realistically, only the penultimate game of the season which they should lose. All the rest are matches they need to, and should, win if they want that fourth spot. Compare this with Man City who still have to play Man Utd, Arsenal, Villa and Spurs. Or Spurs themselves who have Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd, as well as City. Villa, for me are slipping away, and are out of contention altogether for a fourth placed spot. I just think that the Liverpool bandwagon is finally gathering some momentum this season, and given the return to form of Gerrard, and the return to fitness of Torres, I wouldn’t bet against them coming fourth and winning the Europa League.

And so to the bottom, where it increasingly seems like two from three will accompany Portsmouth into the Championship. Strangely it is not Hull or Burnley for who I fear, but the increasingly agitated West Ham. In-fighting and, today,  out-fighting, are blighting the club in its attempts to stay in the league. The sounds coming out of the board-room, and from the manager make it seem like the club is struggling behind the scenes, and the remaining fixtures seem to suggest that it could be hard for Zola’s men to pick up many (if any) more points. Wigan and Sunderland are their best hopes, although a Fulham team distracted by the Europa League may also play into their hands. However, if they need points on the last day of the season, then a trip to Man City (who may still be fighting for fourth) is the last thing Zola would want.

As for Burnley, the match against Hull in a couple of weeks is vital for their chances, but three games against top-six opposition may render that result meaningless. Add to that an away trip to St Andrews, and you fear for their chances of picking up anything more than five points. Which may be enough, but it seems unlikely. This would leave them on 29 points.

On paper, Hull have a slightly easier run in, but have no ‘dead certs’. Most of their matches are against teams in the top half of the table, and whilst they may fancy themselves to pick up some points, I cannot see it being more than three or four. If this is the case, Hull would finish with 31 points.

This would mean West Ham would need roughly five more points to stay up, but looking at their fixtures, I’m not confident. It may even come down to goal-difference which decides who stays up. Either way though, West Ham look like they are in trouble.

Of the teams above them, I’m delighted to think that my team, Wolves, as well as Bolton and Wigan are all but safe from relegation. The recent spell of four games unbeaten has done wonders for the Wolves team, and whilst realistically we cannot expect that to continue against Arsenal on Saturday, it has launched us clear of the drop zone, with a bit of a cushion. If we add that together with the healthy goal difference advantage we have over Wigan, then things are looking up.

So, whilst I think the “big-four” monopoly over the Premier League will continue for now, it will not be without one hell of a fight. And the outlook for Portsmouth is bleak, certain relegation, financial collapse, and players looking disillusioned with the club mean that the tunnel for them seems very dark and very long. For Burnley or Hull relegation would not be the end of things, I think that their respective promotions came perhaps too early for the club, and the financial windfall provided should see them build and develop as football clubs as well as teams. Relegation could be a problem for West Ham, without the Premier League’s cash, and with a rush of key players likely to leave, as well as the manager, the tunnel is likewise pretty dark for them too. However I think it’s significantly shorter for them, and some sound investment over the next few years and I think they would be back stronger if they got relegated.

Advertisements

Actions

Information

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s




%d bloggers like this: